Predicting Childhood Obesity Risk: A Longitudinal Study of Children in Ireland

Nancy Boakye, University of Limerick

Co-authors: Amirhossein Jalalai, University of Limerick; Ailish Hannigan, University of Limerick

Abstract: Childhood obesity is a major health concern with obese children being at increased risk of remaining obese into adulthood. In this study, we aim to predict childhood obesity at age 13 using data from a nationally representative cohort of children in Ireland. A weighted logistic regression was developed using data (n = 3722) collected at age 9 and 13. The model was then internally validated using bootstrap resampling and assessed using discrimination and calibration metrics. The validated model showed good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.8976) and low mis-calibration in CITL (0.0020), with some concerns regarding miscalibration for the calibration slope (0.8903). In conclusion, the model predicted child obesity with a good discriminative ability.