Bayes-ically fair: A Bayesian Ranking of the Olympic Medal Table

Cormac MacDermott, University of Galway

Co-authors: Carl J. Scarrott, University of Galway; John Ferguson, University of Galway

Abstract: Evaluating a country’s sporting success provides insight into its infrastructure for developing athletes. The Olympic Games serve as a global benchmark, yet conventional medal rankings can be unduly influenced by population size. We propose a Bayesian ranking scheme to estimate the long-run per-capita probability of winning a medal, accounting for population size. The rankings provide a more stable and interpretable ordering of national sporting performance compared to competing methods.