Probabilistic Risk Ranking for Chemical Contaminants in Food

Jamie Wilson, University of Limerick

Co-authors: Joseph Hannon, Food Safety Authority of Ireland; Kevin Burke, University of Limerick; Norma Bargary, University of Limerick; Wayne Anderson, Food Safety Authority of Ireland

Abstract: The Food Safety Authority of Ireland (FSAI) plays a crucial role in safeguarding public health through a programme of national chemical monitoring with its partners in the Official Agencies. In 2019, the FSAI’s Scientific Committee introduced a risk ranking model that prioritised chemical contaminants using the core elements of exposure, hazard and legislative requirements. An expanded model is presented that improves upon previous methods by propagating full probabilistic exposure distributions and by employing hierarchical aggregation within the European Food Safety Authority’s FoodEx2 system. In addition, the model integrates policy flag propagation to reflect legislative requirements and emerging risks. This enhanced approach not only captures the inherent variability in dietary exposures but also facilitates efficient, evidence-based decision-making in monitoring activities.